Liverpool eye back-up goalkeeper who's statistically similar to Andre Onana

Liverpool are now plotting to sign a goalkeeper who is statistically similar to Manchester United’s Andre Onana for just £4 million, according to a recent report.

Liverpool confirm Van Dijk’s new contract and being summer planning

Just under a week after confirming Mohamed Salah signed a new contract with Liverpool, the Reds have now announced that superstar defender Virgil van Dijk has signed a new deal until the summer of 2027.

Total cost of Virgil Van Dijk's new Liverpool contract is over £40,000,000

There could be a big transfer twist on the cards.

ByCharlie Smith Apr 17, 2025

The 33-year-old, who was set to become a free agent this summer, was being eyed by German giants Bayern Munich, but the Dutchman has committed to the Premier League side, and his new contract will reportedly see him earn £400,000 a week.

“I’m very happy, very proud. There are so many emotions, obviously, that go through my head right now speaking about it. It’s a proud feeling; it’s a feeling of joy. It’s just incredible. The journey I’ve had so far in my career, to be able to extend it with another two years at this club is amazing, and I’m so happy.

“It was always Liverpool. That was the case. It was always in my head, it was always the plan, and it was always Liverpool.

“There wasn’t any doubt in my head that this is the place to be for me and my family. I’m one of Liverpool. Someone called me the other day an adopted Scouser – I’m really proud to hear these things; it gives me a great feeling.”

Liverpool eye new back-up goalkeeper if Kelleher departs

As Van Dijk commits his future to the Reds, according to German outlet Sport Bild, Liverpool are interested in signing goalkeeper Moritz Nicolas from Borussia Mönchengladbach, who are desperate to raise funds.

The report states that Nicolas has interest from England and particularly from Liverpool. That is because the current head of first-team goalkeeper coaching, Fabian Otte, has worked with Nicolas before, and he could be in line for a move to Anfield to help strengthen their options between the sticks.

The Reds are planning to make an immediate move for the shot-stopper, and the right offer could see this deal accelerate, as Mönchengladbach are desperate for cash to balance their books. Nicolas has a market value of just 5 million euros, which is roughly £4 million.

The report adds that the 27-year-old is seeking one final big contract in his career, but perhaps worryingly, Nicolas is statistically similar to Man United’s Onana. The pair have similar passing figures and share poor penalty saving records, placing the Manchester United ‘keeper second on FBRef’s ‘similar players’ tool.

Nicolas

Onana

Apps

19

31

Goals against

25

41

Goals against per 90

1.37

1.32

Saves

69

85

Save percentage

78.3%

69.8%

Clean sheets

4

9

Passes completed

669

868

Passes attempted

794

1192

Penalty kicks faced

5

4

Penalty kicks saved

0

1

Liverpool already have Giorgi Mamardashvili arriving from Valencia in the summer, but that is not stopping them from looking for another goalkeeper, as Caoimhín Kelleher is expected to leave while Vitezslav Jaros could go out on loan, opening up a spot for a veteran third choice.

Postecoglou must now boldly drop Son for Spurs' "fearless" phenomenon

It would be fair to say that this season has been one of Tottenham Hotspur’s worst for a very long time.

The North Londoners look just as defensively fragile as they did last year, but as Thursday night showed, they no longer possess the attacking dynamism that was the foundation of Ange Postecoglou’s system.

It was a truly dire display from practically the entire team, apart from maybe Lucas Bergvall and Pape Matar Sarr when he came on in the second half.

It was also yet another bad day at the office for Son Heung-min, and while he remains captain of the club and an icon of the Premier League, Postecoglou has to take him out of the lineup for today’s game, and start someone who could help the club into a new era.

Why Son should be dropped

So, the first thing we should say is that Son has been one of the best wingers in the Premier League since he joined the North Londoners almost a decade ago, and even today, he has amassed a great tally of 23 goal involvements in 41 games this season.

Heung-min Son for Tottenham

However, as most Spurs fans will almost certainly attest to, the South Korean’s output has helped to mask the fact that he simply cannot impact games in the way he used to, be that running at defenders or making perfectly timed runs in behind.

Unfortunately, as we’ll all be one day, the Chuncheon-born ace is just another victim of the passage of time; as in the summer, he is set to turn 33, and while that might not be old in the normal world, for a footballer and specifically a winger, it certainly is.

Chalkboard

Football FanCast’s Chalkboard series presents a tactical discussion from around the global game.

For example, according to research carried out by The Athletic a few years ago, the age at which a wide player hits their peak is 26, and worse yet, the age at which their ability to take on and beat defenders dramatically declines is 30.

This is something you can see with the Bayer Leverkusen ace when you watch him play, and it is backed up by the data, as, according to FBref, he sits in the bottom 45% of attacking midfielders and wingers for successful take-ons in the Premier League this season and then against Chelsea, he didn’t even attempt a dribble.

Heung-min Son for Tottenham

In all, Son certainly still has a role to play for Spurs over the next few years, but he should become more of a squad player, someone who starts the less important games or comes off the bench when the team need a goal, and in his place, Postecoglou should start a winger the team should be building around.

The Spurs gem who should start in place of Son

So, there are a few possibilities for who should start off the left this afternoon, from loanee Mathys Tel to summer signing Wilson Odobert, but for our money, it’s time Mikey Moore was given another chance.

The Hotspur Way phenom has been in and out of the first team this season, in part down to illness, and while he hasn’t necessarily blown people away, his performances have demonstrated that he has an enormous amount of talent.

However, those who follow junior football would have already been well aware of that fact, as in just 34 appearances for Tottenham’s various youth sides, the “future superstar,” as dubbed by analyst Ben Mattinson, has scored 21 goals and provided 15 assists.

Games

24

5

5

Goals

19

2

0

Assists

13

2

0

Goal Involvements per match

1.33

0.80

0.00

That means the youngster is averaging 1.05 goal involvements every game in the academy, making the decision to hand him more first-team game time earlier this season a no-brainer.

With that said, he has still managed to rack up three goal involvements in 632 senior minutes this season.

Moreover, he doesn’t need to score or assist to have an impact, as his most impressive performance came against AZ Alkmaar earlier in the campaign, when he was exciting and dangerous enough for teammate James Maddison to describe him as “fearless” and compare him to Neymar Jr.

It’s this track record and the potential he possesses that should see him start ahead of Son today, as, unlike the South Korean, he is the future of this Tottenham team, and the sooner he is a regular starter, the sooner the club can start to build around him and progress.

Their own Yamal: Spurs begin work to sign a "future Ballon d'Or winner"

The exciting talent could be a game-changer for Spurs.

ByJack Salveson Holmes Apr 2, 2025

The Rashid phenom: everything, everywhere, all at once

On the occasion of Afghanistan’s qualification for the T20 World cup semi-final, their captain was the heart and soul of their victory

Andrew Fidel Fernando25-Jun-20244:14

Rashid: It was hard to stay calm at some points

“I’ve never seen that ever. In any level of cricket.”Ian Smith has developed such a reputation for being on the mic during cricket’s most incredible moments, he should probably publish his commentary schedule so traveling fans can also find themselves witnessing unforgettable sporting history. His is one of those rare voices that reaches into the ether and gathers such perfect descriptions of high cricketing drama that those moments themselves later feel incomplete without. What is England’s 2019 boundary-countback World Cup victory minus Smith’s “by the barest of margins” ringing in your ears?Even he’s at a bit of a loss here, though. But then he’s commentating on Afghanistan. And there’s been a cricket team like this.Right now, we are 19.3 overs into Afghanistan’s innings, and things are going poorly for them against Bangladesh. Rashid Khan had banged a six over backward point previous ball, but still, they are only at 107 for 5 with four balls left. There is history waiting to be grabbed. It doesn’t feel like Afghanistan will quite reach it.Related

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On ball 19.3, Rashid tried to snake-hit a six over the legside, but had only managed a leading edge that went deep into the offside instead. He had turned for a second and come sprinting back to keep the strike. But his partner, Karim Janat, sent him back.So right now, he is mid-pitch, and furious. The ball is only now being gathered, and there are only three deliveries left, and Rashid wants this extra run, and he also wants the strike as he has just smashed a six, and wow why the hell would you turn down this run?Rashid thrashes his bat so angrily that he loses grip and it goes spinning towards Janat, its own little vortex of rage. When Janat returns Rashid’s bat, after Rashid has comfortably regained his ground at the non-striker’s end, he has a sheepish expression. Rashid can’t stand to look at his team-mate.When he gets the strike back later that over, Rashid smokes a six over square leg so perfect it soars over the stand. It is possible no ball has been so cleanly struck all tournament. He finishes with a strike rate no one else in his team has come close to. He stomps off the field, full of intent, and ambition.

****

Fans in Khost celebrate the win against Bangladesh that confirmed Afghanistan’s place in the T20 World Cup semi-finals•AFP via Getty ImagesRashid is an outlier in a cricketing country that itself is an outlier. He is a legspin bowler in a nation which, going from neighbouring Pakistan’s experience at least, you would expect would be known for its fast bowling. When Afghanistan first burst into the global cricket consciousness in the 2015 ODI World Cup, they played to this type – the strapping Shapoor Zadran leading the attack, and Hamid Hassan – Afghan colours worn like warpaint on his cheeks – hurrying the world’s best batters.But if Afghanistan’s cricketing story is one of confounding expectations, and rising spectacularly fast, no one has confounded more, or risen as spectacularly as Rashid. Since making his debut in late 2015, he has been on the frontlines of T20 cricket’s wristspin revolution. He’s grown an entire batting section to his game, like a secondary crop in a spare field, which many other wristspinners, who dominate that one discipline, have not found cause to do.And there can be no resident Afghan quite like him in the world – as prized in Melbourne as Mumbai, as feared in London as Lahore, almost as admired in Cape Town as Kabul. Unusually for legspinners who excel at T20s, Rashid has also rocked Test cricket, taking 34 wickets at an average of 22.35 in the matches he’s played. There is almost no story of Afghan triumph that you can tell to which he has not been central, or at the very least, central-adjacent.2:26

Tamim: This is massive for Afghanistan cricket

As with any Afghan story in the last several decades there are “what ifs” for Rashid, the most obvious of which is “what if he’d just decided to play franchise cricket forever without worrying about national duties”. It’s a good question. It would have freed Rashid up to make more money. Additionally, he would not have to deal with the political realities of Afghan cricket, which have been prescribed by the Taliban since 2021.But he is here instead, in St. Vincent on a rainy night, mid-pitch, screaming at a team-mate, as irate as anyone has been on a cricket field through this World Cup.

****

If you want to know the story of Afghan cricket in the last 10 years, look at Rashid Khan’s statistics. If you want to know the story of this match against Bangladesh, look at his returns. With the bat he hit 19 not out off 10, with three sixes. With the ball, 4 for 23 off four overs. As if to underline his centrality to Afghanistan’s success, Rashid took out the entire middle of the Bangladesh innings, batters four, five, six and seven all dismissed by him.They were classic Rashid wickets. Soumya Sarkar played around a fast one that Rashid turned more than the batter expected, Towhid Hridoy tried to hit against the wind and the turn and was predictably caught at deep midwicket, Mahmudullah gave a thin under-edge to the wicketkeeper (another fast one), and next ball, Rashid bowls Rishad Hossain with a quick googly. There are few bowlers who read the shots batters are looking to play against them better than Rashid. In this Super Eight stage, no bowler has taken more than his eight wickets.Rashid Khan accounted for Nos. 4, 5, 6 and 7 in the Bangladesh batting order•Associated PressBut this is only when he is himself bowling. Because even if you had never followed Rashid’s career, even if you didn’t know that he is one of the most naturally-gifted cricketers of his generation, even if you hadn’t clocked the bleak political reality that this team might not be allowed to play if they hadn’t captured their nation’s attention by being so good, you could still turn up to Kingstown on this rainy night, watch ten minutes of the action, and figure who was at the heart of this team’s success.Rashid is sometimes fielding at the straight boundary, because that’s where the Afghanistan dugout is and he wants to hear what the coach has to say, but he’s charging into the infield any time there’s an lbw shout. When there’s a misfield or a dropped catch – he’s on the scene chiding those players too. Yes, the ground is slippery. Yes, the ball is wet. But the captain has 4 for 23 bowling wristspin. What’s your excuse? He is at times outraged, often intense, frequently animated, almost always in his team-mates’ faces.Late in the match, sometime between the many rain breaks, Smith says of this match: “Whoever has written this script, they have done a fantastic job”.He’s right. It is as absorbing a cricket story as you could encounter. Jonathan Trott, the English coach of the Afghanistan team is barking orders from the dugout. Dwayne Bravo, the Trinidadian fast-bowling coach is prowling the edge of the field. Gulbadin Naib, whose hamstring had apparently exploded in agony as Trott asked for the game to be slowed down, and just-as-suddenly come right, is ranging the infield.Afghanistan are throwing everything at this match. But no one is throwing more at it than their captain, who knows that although he himself is franchise T20 royalty, his national team will always have to fight for every scrap they get. He knows that he and his team-mates will never play an international at home, and that there will forever be battles to fight that most international cricketers on the planet could never even conceive of.1:18

Tamim: Rashid’s mentality as strong as his skills

When he watches that last wicket go down, Rashid sinks into the wet turf and says a prayer. Naveen-ul-Haq, who has just got two wickets in two balls, is racing towards the dugout, most of his team-mates in pursuit. Bravo has erupted into exultation. So has Trott.And whoever you are in the world, whatever has driven you to follow this sport, you can find a kindred spirit in this euphoric melee.You might relate best to Trott, once a pretty dour England player (let’s be honest), now head coach of Afghanistan, who can’t help but be caught up in the moment. You could love Bravo, one of the greatest to ever play this format, erupting outside the boundary he’d been nervously pacing for hours. You could find yourself enraptured in Mohammad Nabi’s exultations – he’s been part of every Afghanistan team you can remember, but is only now about to play the biggest game of his life. You could be Rahmanullah Gurbaz, the highest run-getter of this tournament, and Afghanistan’s top-scorer of the evening, weeping helplessly in the dressing room. You could even be Gulbadin Naib, the fall-guy who doesn’t mind looking foolish to wangle an advantage for his team.Rashid, though, is alone, somewhere near the straight boundary, still on his knees.The first teammate to rush to him and envelope him in an almighty bear-hug is Janat, whom Rashid had thrown a bat at two hours earlier. Who else could have known so viscerally how much Rashid wanted this?But Janat is not the only one who understands that none of this is possible without the man he has wrapped in his arms. He is not the only one who knows how much of this improbable run to the semi-finals rested on Rashid. Or how heroically Rashid has shouldered an entire phase of Afghanistan’s cricket.

Five pressing issues for Nicholas Pooran to ponder

Workloads, a weak bowling attack and the golden generation’s exodus will be among his immediate worries as West Indies’ new white-ball captain

Santokie Nagulendran04-May-2022Replacing Pollard, on and off the pitch
The first task facing Pooran will be to build on the team unity created by Pollard, who galvanised the side in a series victory against England in January. But especially in T20Is, this is a largely inexperienced side that will need a captain who can continue to provide vision and clarity. Pooran excelled with the bat in his last international assignment, in India earlier this year, averaging 61.33 with a strike rate of 140.45 across three T20Is. He will hold the team to the same high standards Pollard did.Related

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Nicholas Pooran appointed West Indies white-ball captain

Pooran will also need to decide who takes over from Pollard in the T20I squad as the designated finisher; the powerful Rovman Powell could be moved down the order to fulfil such a role. In ODIs, Pollard tended to move up the order when the innings needed impetus, so with an abundance of allrounders already in the side, rather than a finisher, he could be replaced by a specialist batter like Nkrumah Bonner, who was recalled for the ODI series against India.Pollard also had the support of senior players such as Chris Gayle, Andre Russell, Lendl Simmons and Dwayne Bravo during the majority of his captaincy, which Pooran will miss. Former captain Jason Holder will be vital in providing assistance, while Shai Hope will serve as vice-captain in ODIs.Managing his own workload
Days after the conclusion of the IPL, West Indies will travel to play ODI series in Netherlands and then Pakistan. Although they are now unlikely to directly qualify for the 2023 World Cup, the series are worth Super League points and Pooran will want to make an immediate impact as leader. Having seen how Pollard was treated by some sections of the media in the Caribbean, he will be fully aware of the pressure he will face if early results do not go his way.West Indies will then go on to face Bangladesh, India and New Zealand in white-ball series as part of their home summer. This unrelenting fixture list continues with the Caribbean Premier League, where Pooran will turn out for the Trinbago Knight Riders, followed soon after by the T20 World Cup in Australia, where West Indies play in the first round.With the workload of captaincy to manage apart from his batting, will Nicholas Pooran continue to keep wicket?•AFP/Getty ImagesAs well as captaining and leading the middle order through these games, Pooran will also be keeping wicket in T20Is, a fair responsibility. All signs so far suggest he excels under such responsibility – both his average and strike rate are significantly higher in the T20Is he’s captained in – though he may well relinquish the gloves for some matches in order to balance that workload.West Indies’ bowling woes
A clear problem with the side in both white-ball formats is the inability to take wickets. The struggles have seen veteran bowlers such as Fidel Edwards, Kemar Roach and Ravi Rampaul recalled to white-ball cricket since the turn of 2021. One advantage that Pooran has is that Obed McCoy is now fit and available to play for the first time since last year’s T20 World Cup. As a strike bowler who is effective in the Powerplay, he will be a massive asset.Alzarri Joseph has built a reputation for big-name wickets in ODI cricket, but he has lacked consistency in the format. It will be up to Pooran to try and get the best out of him. Some good performances for the Gujarat Titans in this season’s IPL indicate that Joseph could also be handed a T20I debut in the coming months.Also intriguing will be whether Pooran has any influence in handing the talented Jayden Seales a white-ball debut to partner McCoy. Seales was included in white-ball squads earlier this year but not chosen for the starting XI. With squads set to be rotated in order to manage the schedule, it would be surprising if we did not see Seales play under Pooran sooner rather than later.Given the experience West Indies have lost in their middle order, Shimron Hetmyer could find a way back into the set-up•AFP/Getty ImagesMiddle-order consistency
Evin Lewis returning should aid the side’s top-order issues, but the middle is the real problem, with players such as Darren Bravo and Roston Chase consistently unable to build innings in white-ball formats. Pooran will need to improve his own batting form in ODIs, having only scored one half century in his last ten innings. While there is an abundance of lower-order allrounders who can accelerate an innings, the inability of the side to run singles and rotate strike has been a massive hindrance, particularly in 50-overs cricket where the side has lost their past two series, to Ireland and India.It will be up to Pooran to lead by example by scoring runs and guiding players by building partnerships. Pooran has improved his batting in this year’s IPL, working closely with Brian Lara at Sunrisers Hyderabad. Could we see Lara integrated into the West Indies set-up in some capacity?Missing stars
Pollard, Bravo and Gayle had a combined 271 T20I caps between them and a staggering 588 ODI caps. Losing the core of the golden generation in the space of six months has created a massive void in the side. The likes of Dominic Drakes, Odean Smith and Romario Shepherd have debuted but they have not had too many experienced heads to turn to for advice.West Indies do still have experienced players who are flourishing, just not in maroon. Sunil Narine, Russell and Shimron Hetmyer, for various reasons, are not currently playing international cricket. Pooran will be aware of how valuable they are to the side, but will he decide to start conversations with them about a path back in?

What is the template for a successful chase in the IPL?

A look at how teams successfully get to targets in the tournament and what they do at each stage of a game

Himanish Ganjoo31-Aug-2020Limited-overs cricket divides the game into two halves: batting first and chasing are markedly different from each other. With a target in sight, batting sides approach their innings considering what they need to achieve. Compared to the uncertainty involved in setting a good target, this largely makes chasing a better strategy, which is why teams winning the toss have chosen to field first in 77.6% of completed matches in the IPL since 2015. When they opt to chase, teams win 57.5% of matches. On the other hand, even when they lose the toss and are asked to chase, they win 52.5% of the time. Teams have identified that chasing presents a clear advantage. But what does the average chasing side do right? How is the standard chasing win constructed in the IPL?In this article, we will analyse chases of 140 or more in the last five IPL seasons, to restrict our data to reasonably challenging targets in the recent past.Looking at the chances of winning a chase, a total of between 140 and 160, which would be considered slightly under par on an average T20 wicket, presents a 61.1% chance of being chased down; 177 is the average target for teams in this dataset, and that falls at the end of the 160-180 bracket, which is a traditional “par” score and corresponds to a roughly 57% and 44% success rate.

To break up how winning sides construct their chases, let us first look at the powerplay. The median winning team achieves 31.07% of its target by the end of the powerplay, for the loss of one wicket. The median losing side, in contrast, gets to just over 26% of the target at that stage, while losing two wickets. Remarkably, the average percentage of target scored in the powerplay is mostly consistent for winning sides, across target ranges.

The average winning sides score a tad more than 30% of the target in the powerplay, which makes up 30% of the allotted overs. In addition, the median number of wickets lost is one, across all target ranges. Typical winning teams follow the consistent strategy of staying just abreast of the required rate while conserving wickets.Losing sides, on the other hand, make less and less of the target as it goes higher, and lose a median of two wickets in the powerplay. They fall behind the curve even in the first segment of the innings.

The number of wickets that fall in the powerplay is well correlated with chances of winning a chase. As the following table shows, each additional wicket down at six overs brings the win probability down by huge margins. No doubt, this is correlated with low run rates that come about due to the loss of wickets.

However, if a side makes more than 30% of the target in the powerplay, staying close to the required run rate, there’s no clear trend saying more wickets lost leads to a lower win probability.

Bowling philosophies in the powerplay are varied. Batsmen are most conservative at the start of the innings, and some teams try to sneak in a few “quiet” overs to retain more attacking options for later. The above data suggests that bowling teams should look to attack more and take wickets early on, deflating the innings before the batsmen start to cut loose to utilise the field restrictions towards the end of the powerplay overs.The seventh over, when batting teams are waking up to the second epoch of their innings, should be the designated slot for getting through a part-timer’s over. The Melbourne Renegades have employed Tom Cooper to this end.Tom Moody, on a recent episode of the Pitch Side Experts Podcast, agreed about attacking bowling early in the piece: “In the first six overs… the value of wickets outweighs the fact that you may go for a few boundaries, so I’d much rather focus on setting up the first six overs with an attacking approach, knowing that if I’ve got two or three in the bag after six overs, we’re in a very strong position to control the innings.”On the other hand, the chasing team could employ dispensable pinch-hitters at the top of the order for short, fast knocks that make the most of the first three overs, when both teams are playing circumspectly. This ensures an early lead over the required rate, without the loss of a wicket meaning much. In the UAE, where pitches are more sluggish than in India, making hay while the ball is hardest might prove to be a key strategy.***Minimising the loss of wickets while going at the asking rate till the powerplay ends seems to be the way an average team goes about winning a chase. How does the rest of the innings pan out?The mean percentage of the target scored in wins is more than that in losses at all stages of an innings. The average unsuccessful chasing side is always behind the average successful one in every phase of the innings, and the gap increases as the innings progresses. The average lost chase reaches 90% of the target if the innings lasts 20 overs.The curve for the typical won chase follows the line of equality closely: the percentage of the target scored is almost always hugging the percentage of deliveries taken. This suggests a bare minimum optimal strategy for chases, which has also been suggested by various operations-research studies on cricket: try to go at the required rate, always.

The average number of wickets lost tells the same tale: a normal chase-winning batting order always has more than one wicket extra in hand compared to a losing one. This difference dwindles as the chase approaches the end and wickets in hand lose their relative value, but from overs six to 16, the gap is always more than one wicket.

That the gap closes towards the end of the chase reflects the dispersion of aggression in a typical victorious chasing innings. Batting sides up the ante as the innings draws to a close.The distribution of aggressive intent from a batting side can be seen in the runs it scores in context of the current required rate. Till how late in the innings are batsmen willing to not strike faster than what is needed? The next graph takes the runs scored off a given ball minus the required runs per ball and averages it for each over. In conjunction with the probability of losing wickets in each over, this explains the distribution of batting resources in a normal chasing win.

An average successful chase can be broken into four phases. In the first two overs, batsmen are settling in, gauging the conditions and conserving their wickets, happy to score below the starting required rate. This increases the asking rate, but they then capitalise on the fielding restrictions in the latter half of the powerplay, going at 0.1 to 0.2 runs per ball faster than what is asked for. From the seventh to the 12th over, they again switch to going below the needed rate, cruising while not drifting too far below it. Noticeably, the seventh over is the most conservative – with the lowest chance of losing wickets, and a run rate well beneath what is required.

The intermediate phase increases the required rate, but since fewer risks are taken, it sets a launchpad for the final stretch. The pacing in the middle overs and the gradual rise of the scoring rate means that the required run rate stays manageable till the 13th over begins, after which the batting steps on the pedal.In contrast, the average differential of runs scored and runs needed per ball is negative for all overs in lost matches. This is in addition to the wicket probabilities being higher, again, for all overs.

The average unaccomplished chase keeps drifting farther away from the right course, the sluggish scoring and the loss of wickets feeding each other and deflating the innings cumulatively. Wickets slow the batting down, boosting the required rate, leading to more risks and more wickets.

At the end of the 12th over, the median winning team breaks even with their run-scoring rate compared to the asking rate. At this stage, the median winning team leaves 70 runs to get, with eight wickets hand, while in losses, the median equation is 90 runs needed with seven wickets in hand. Good chasing teams work towards the target throughout the innings, seldom leaving too much work for the end.Nevertheless, can we pinpoint a “par” target to leave for the last eight overs, which gives you a 50-50 chance of knocking the target down?To accomplish this, we will fit our data to a mathematical model that predicts the chances of winning, given how many runs need to be got and how many wickets remain at the end of 12 overs. Our method of choice will be logistic regression, which uses available data to smoothly predict the chances of a binary result (in our case, win or loss). This will tell us how much an average team can leave for the last phase, depending on the number of wickets they have intact, to give themselves an even chance of victory.This figure shows the predictions of the model after accounting for data from chases of greater than 140. The three different lines correspond to situations with zero, two, and four wickets down at the end of the 12th over. If a team has lost no wickets, anything under 90 runs needed will give them a greater than 50% chance of winning. Having 60 runs to win will give them an 80% chance of a win.

The equivalent value for a 50-50 chance if a team is two wickets down at the same stage is about 80 runs, and 70 runs if four wickets have been lost. Notice that this par target decreases by about ten runs for every two wickets lost at this stage of the innings. This quantifies the payoff between conserving wickets and scoring runs in the middle overs: for every wicket you lose, you should be about five runs closer to the target to maintain even odds of success.

Every Batter Dealt in Cubs-Astros Kyle Tucker Trade Homered in Same Game

The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros were involved in a big MLB trade back in December that sent three-time All-Star Kyle Tucker to Chicago, while infielder Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and top infield prospect Cam Smith were dealt to Houston.

These players all faced each other this weekend while the Cubs are visiting Daikin Park. And, in some sort of fantastical way, the three batters dealt in the trade all hit home runs in the same game on Saturday night.

Smith shot off the first homer in the third inning, giving the Astros a 2-1 lead at the time. The Cubs responded in a major way in the fourth inning, as three players homered to add to the tally of seven total runs. The last Cub to homer in the fourth inning was Tucker, who has been on fire this season and specifically while visiting Houston. He was a triple short of the cycle on Saturday night.

Paredes finished off the prophecy, of sorts, in the eighth inning when he hit a 328-foot homer to give the Astros their third and final run of the night. Tucker had the upper hand in the matchup as the Cubs won 12-3.

What a full circle moment for all three players.

Rock and Roll It Podcast: The fun of watching Rohit and Kohli bat

Dustin Silgardo, Sidharth Monga and Karthik Krishnaswamy get together to share their joy at watching Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli at their best in Sydney against Australia and the emergence of Harshit Rana and Washington Sundar as all-round options in white-ball cricket.

India trying to ready Reddy for greater challenges

India want to give the seam-bowling allrounder game time in home Tests so that he can improve for challenges overseas

Karthik Krishnaswamy08-Oct-20252:05

Is there a role for Nitish Kumar Reddy in home Tests?

Ten years from now, it might be the image you recall most vividly from last week’s Ahmedabad Test: Nitish Kumar Reddy airborne at full stretch, having flung himself to his left at square leg to turn a well-hit pull from Tagenarine Chanderpaul into India’s first wicket in the second innings.You might, however, struggle to recall anything else Reddy did in the Test, because he didn’t get to contribute much to India’s innings victory. He bowled four overs in West Indies’ first innings, didn’t bowl in their second, and didn’t get to bat as India declared first thing in the morning on day three, on their overnight total of 448 for 5, despite there being so much time left in the game.It’s the kind of thing that can happen to a player in such a dominant victory, particularly a player whose skillset can seem surplus to requirements in certain conditions. India want to maximise Reddy’s potential as a seam-bowling allrounder and are hoping to turn him into a player whose presence gives them depth and balance with both bat and ball in overseas conditions. But to help him grow into that player, they recognise he needs game time in red-ball cricket between those tours, which means playing him whenever possible even in home Tests.Related

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“I’d say we’re unlikely to change the combination,” India assistant coach Ryan ten Doeschate said two days out from the second Test in Delhi. “One of the sort of medium-term objectives is to develop a seam-bowling allrounder for India, because it’s very important when we go away on tours that we have that position covered.”We didn’t get a very good look at Nitish last week, so I think it’s a very good opportunity to give Nitish another go and not alter the balance of the team.”In his eight Tests so far, Reddy has shown evidence of his high ceiling in Test cricket, particularly with the bat. He top-scored in low India totals with 41, 42 and 42 in three of his first four Test innings, during the 2024-25 tour of Australia, and followed up with a maiden Test hundred at the MCG. His bowling isn’t yet at that level, but he took key top-order wickets both in Australia and during the 2025 tour of England.”We think he’s a fantastic seam-bowling allrounder, a batter who bowls seam,” ten Doeschate said. “I think the biggest limitation to what his ceiling could be is going to be his body. He is not the first allrounder we’ve seen in this country whom that applies to; to be perfectly honest, Hardik [Pandya]’s in the same sort of character of player where we don’t doubt their skills at all but for their bodies to hold up to Test cricket is a different matter.”Nitish, I think he showed everyone in Australia how good he is as a batter; I think the challenge for him is going to be to make sure that he gets game time in between away series. In a series like this, when you look at the combination, it’s more important to look ahead and see how we can fit him in to make sure that he does get game time and time to develop his bowling. We really like him, we think he’s a quality allrounder.”4:20

Ten Doeschate: India unlikely to change combination due to a medium-term objective

As true as that might be, India have three spin-bowling allrounders in their squad against West Indies, and two of them – Ravindra Jadeja and Washington Sundar – played in Ahmedabad and batted ahead of Reddy, with Jadeja scoring an unbeaten century to extend his 2025 purple patch.”The sort of lucky thing for us is Washy and Jaddu and even Axar [Patel] are pretty much the same sort of players,” ten Doeschate said when asked whether batting behind Jadeja and Washington could potentially hold back Reddy’s development. “We feel they can bat anywhere from five all the way through to eight, and on the most recent evidence of Washy getting important runs in the UK, [and] obviously Jaddu’s form in the last six months has been immense, and unfortunately that means when Nitish does come back into the team right after his injury, he fits in right at the back of that list, and hence the reason why he batted at eight.”The only drawback, or the only sort of downer from last week in that first Test was the fact that Nitish didn’t get to compete in any of the departments, but I think it’s also a strong message to the guys who are fighting for that spot that you need to be versatile, you need to be able to bat anywhere from five all the way through to eight, and we feel that’s a good way to develop players, that they can perform in different scenarios and different positions.”If we’re all disappointed that they’re not batting six or seven that means Indian cricket’s in a good space, and long may that continue.On Sai Sudharsan: ‘We know he’s good enough’Another player who had a quiet game in Ahmedabad was B Sai Sudharsan. Unlike Reddy, he got the chance to show what he could do, batting at No. 3, but he was the only member of the top six to be dismissed for a single-digit score. On 7, he was lbw attempting an ambitious pull off the offspinner Roston Chase when the ball may not have been short enough for the shot.It continued a frustrating start to Sai Sudharsan’s Test career. In England, he showed why India rate him highly enough to have given him a debut as a No. 3 despite coming to Test cricket with a sub-40 first-class average: he played the ball late, showed excellent judgment outside off stump, and looked unhurried and in control at most times. But he also fell in unusual ways multiple times after getting a start, including more than once to balls angling down the leg side. Now, after that low score at Ahmedabad, Sai Sudharsan averages 21.00 with just one half-century in seven innings.0:49

Chopra: ‘Sai Sudharsan needs runs or the pressure will mount’

“I think he is under no illusion and he can’t hide away from the fact that you do fight for a spot in this environment, where you saw Karun Nair get four Test matches in England [before getting dropped for the West Indies series]. There are a lot of good players fighting up the hill to whoever has possession of that spot,” ten Doeschate said. “So Sai just needs to focus on believing in himself. We’ve obviously got a lot of belief in him to give him that No. 3 spot. He is playing pretty nicely, probably a tactical mistake the other day, which he’ll be aware of – playing back to a ball so early in an innings.”We know he’s good enough; and now he has to find a way of scoring runs and showing the rest of the country and the rest of the team that he’s good enough to hold that spot. But certainly no panic or no worry – particularly in a winning team you can absorb that in a series like this, where he knows he’s going to get four knocks.”The rhythms of the Test calendar, ten Doeschate felt, is another challenge for players like Sai Sudharsan who are still finding their feet in the format. “It’s probably a little bit early to be worried or panic-stricken. Doesn’t help that you have five Test matches in the UK and then you wait six weeks to play the next Test match, and the same thing will happen now after this Test next week – we don’t have another Test match for the next three and a half weeks. There’s no string of fixtures to get your rhythm and to get yourself going, but again that’s the nature of Test cricket in this era, and he has to find a way to do it.”On Jurel: ‘We were trying to squeeze him into our plans even in Australia and England’In Ahmedabad, Dhruv Jurel – playing as wicketkeeper in the absence of the injured Rishabh Pant – batted at No. 5, scored his maiden Test hundred, and left a lot of viewers theorising that he could potentially remain in the XI as a specialist batter even after Pant returns.”I’d imagine it does [put pressure on Sai Sudharsan],” ten Doeschate said. “I think Dhruv showed last week just what a good player he is. We’ve known that all along, how well [he could] fit into the middle order, and in addition to that, there are other good players who are fighting for a top-three or top-four spot – obviously Shubman [Gill]’s got four nailed down.2:02

Chopra: Jurel making a strong case for No. 6 spot

“Sai’s aware of that, and look, I don’t think you pursue a career of playing cricket in India if you don’t expect that sort of competition and people clawing at you, the media clawing at you, that’s part and parcel of it, and we know Sai is tough enough to deal with that.”Jurel had already enjoyed an impressive debut series in Test cricket, against England last year, when ten Doeschate joined the coaching staff under new head coach Gautam Gambhir. He has since played one Test in Australia, one in England after Pant suffered his injury, and then in Ahmedabad. He has also been part of the T20I squad as back-up wicketkeeper, and has now been picked in the ODI squad that will tour Australia later this month.”We’re really happy with the way he is tracking,” ten Doeschate said of Jurel. “He’s someone, even in England, even a little bit in Australia, we were trying to squeeze him into the plans because we know how good he is, and obviously, with Rishabh now being injured, it’s worked out quite nicely to get Dhruv some game time.”[In terms of] his development, what we saw at the back end of last year, leading into this year, we were really hoping he would kick on in the IPL, and he maybe didn’t have quite the IPL he would have hoped for and we would have hoped for, but to come into the team now like he has and to score a proper hundred like that, hopefully it gives him a bit of runway, and if you look at it in a positive way, it’s good that he is putting pressure on other players in the top order as well.”

Arsenal agree new contract with star after breakthrough, announcement in due course

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has now reportedly been handed a huge boost after some contract news out of the Emirates Stadium.

Ever since Andrea Berta’s arrival in north London, the sporting director has rushed to secure the long-term futures of Arteta’s most important players.

Several extensions have already been announced, and crucial talks remain ongoing with star performers like Bukayo Saka and Jurrien Timber.

William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes both committed with long-term extensions running until 2030 earlier this year, with the pair also said to have promised eachother they’ll remain at the Emirates to compete for major silverware.

These deals were considered vital after Real Madrid showed serious interest in Saliba especially, and tying down both of world football’s centre-backs represents a major coup for Arsenal as Berta signals their serious ambition.

Rising academy stars Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly also penned new five-year contracts in the summer, rewarding their breakthrough into the first team and showcasing Arsenal’s continued commitment to youth development.

Both teenagers have impressed when given opportunities and are viewed by Arsenal as integral parts of the club’s future plans, even if some reports suggest that Lewis-Skelly could leave North London in January after falling behind Riccardo Calafiori and Piero Hincapie in the pecking order.

Goalkeeper David Raya and winger Leandro Trossard received significant pay rises before the 2025-26 season too, even if neither player actually extended the length of their deals — which comes as quite interesting.

Arsenal’s unbeaten run in all competitions since defeat to Liverpool

Arsenal 3-0 Nottingham Forest

Athletic Bilbao 0-2 Arsenal

Arsenal 1-1 Man City

Port Vale 0-2 Arsenal

Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal

Arsenal 2-0 Olympiacos

Arsenal 2-0 West Ham

Fulham 0-1 Arsenal

Arsenal 4-0 Atletico Madrid

Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace

Arsenal 2-0 Brighton

Burnley 0-2 Arsenal

Slavia Prague 0-3 Arsenal

Sunderland 2-2 Arsenal

Trossard’s situation was particularly unusual, with the Belgian agreeing to a salary adjustment that increased his wages without adding any further years to his contract, which still expires in 2027.

That being said, the most crucial new deal talks centre around Saka.

Arsenal are said to have made excellent progress in talks with the England international, with both parties aligned and convinced about continuing together. The 24-year-old, whose current terms runs until 2027, is expected to become Arsenal’s highest-paid player in history with wages exceeding £300,000 per week.

Now, according to TEAMtalk, an agreement has been reached in negotiations.

Arsenal agree new Bukayo Saka deal after "breakthrough"

Indeed, the outlet reports that Arsenal have achieved a ‘breakthrough’ in contract talks with Saka, and an official announcement is expected to be made in ‘due course’ over his new deal.

After months of discussions between the two parties, Saka is now apparently poised to sign on the dotted line, coming one month after the Hale End superstar publicly declared his wish to remain at N5.

Saka has evolved into one of the world’s elite wingers and his importance to the Gunners cannot be overstated.

The attacker already has over 277 first-team appearances under his belt at Arsenal, scoring 76 goals across all competitions, and he reached a significant milestone by making his 200th Premier League appearance for the club against West Ham in October.

His output has been extraordinary ever since making his senior debut against Vorskla Poltava all the way back in 2018. The Three Lions superstar has netted 56 goals and provided 51 assists in the top flight alone, giving him an incredible 107 goal involvements in the competition, and he’s barely midway through his 20s.

Only Cristiano Ronaldo, Raheem Sterling and Ryan Giggs had more combined Premier League goals and assists than Saka at the age of 23, making for more insane numbers that put him on course to challenge some of the all-time Premier League records.

Arteta will be thrilled that Saka’s hamstring woes are now behind him, and we could still be yet to see the very best of what Arsenal’s electrifying gem has to offer.

Gary O'Neil favourite is on borrowed time at Wolves after Edwards arrival

Wolverhampton Wanderers fans would have been largely encouraged by their side’s first 45 minutes post-Vitor Pereira, as the Old Gold were holding Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea to a tense 0-0 stalemate.

However, after Malo Gusto opened the scoring for the Blues early into the second half, it ended up being one-way traffic as the West Londoners picked up their sixth Premier League win of the season, which, in turn, consigned the lowly visitors to their depressing ninth defeat of the campaign.

Journalist Nathan Judah stated at the final whistle that the West Midlands outfit are “destined” to be in the Championship next season, and it’s hard to dispute this claim, with Wolves still stuck at the bottom of the unforgiving division on just two points.

It will be up to Rob Edwards to somehow steer the sinking ship back on course, with their replacement for Pereira ditching the luxuries of being in a promotion race in the EFL with Middlesbrough, for an intense relegation dog-fight in the top-flight.

Interim manager James Collins did state that he thinks Wolves can stay up, despite their pitiful start, after the dust had settled on the 3-0 defeat, as Edwards assesses what players he will stick by and what players he will ditch after the Saturday night loss.

Edwards' immediate selection dilemmas at Wolves

Watching the Chelsea defeat in great detail, the former Luton Town manager will surely stick with Sam Johnstone in between the sticks.

Without Johnstone in goal, Wolves would have been on the receiving end of a far worse battering, with five saves in total picked up by the ex-West Bromwich Albion goalkeeper. He had become Pereira’s first choice over Jose Sa, and that looks unlikely to change.

Hwang Hee-Chan might find his starting spot is on shaky ground, though. He didn’t register a single shot on Robert Sanchez’s goal, with Edwards hoping that his strike partner on the day, Jorgen Strand Larsen, finds his goalscoring mojo again when he enters the Molineux dug-out, as another goalless display passed him by.

While the forward line desperately needs to improve, something needs to drastically change with the backline in front of Johnstone, with Wolves now conceding a horrific 25 goals after the Chelsea defeat, making them the leakiest team in the entire division.

In particular, this ropey Old Gold defender could already be on borrowed time heading into the brand-new Edwards’ era, even with previous shouts from Gary O’Neil, stating he is an “incredible” talent to work with.

Wolves defender is on borrowed time under Edwards

O’Neil was chosen as the first immediate name to replace Pereira, only for advanced talks to go awry last minute.

No doubt, if his return to the Molineux hot-seat did come true, he would have stuck by Toti Gomes, based on his prior adoration, with the Portuguese centre-back also shining under Pereira’s reign in flashes.

During the early days of Pereira’s stint, as Wolves-based content creator Ryan Leister put it, the Old Gold were a far “better side” with him placed in the starting XI.

Indeed, this is backed up by some mightily impressive numbers, with Gomes winning a commanding 18 duels at the end of December last year against Leicester City and Manchester United to secure Pereira his first two league victories in the West Midlands.

In the here and now, however, Gomes looks a shadow of his former self, as the £25k-per-week defender let Gusto have all the time in the world to head the Blues into a one-goal lead, among other shoddy moments from his lacklustre day at the office, which also saw him win no tackles or aerial duels.

Toti Gomes’ decline at Wolves

Stat (* = per 90 mins)

24/25

25/26

Games played

30

8

Goals scored

0

0

Assists

1

0

Touches*

68.1

53.6

Accurate passes*

46.5 (87%)

37.6 (87%)

Tackles*

2.0

1.0

Ball recoveries*

3.7

3.3

Clearances*

4.7

2.6

Total duels won*

4.8

3.0

Clean sheets

8

0

Stats by Sofascore

With Edwards priding himself on making his former Luton side more “difficult” to break down – as Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta put it – he is likely to want to axe Gomes based on his porous performances so far this season, regardless of his impressive showings under previous regimes, and when Pereira was at his peak in the Molineux dug-out.

Of course, that isn’t to say Gomes will be completely written off, as Edwards attempts to get a tune out of those who are visibly faltering and can do better.

But, it might be beneficial for the underperforming number 24 to be removed from the starting XIs initially when Edwards enters the building, as the 42-year-old attempts to inject some much-needed fight into his downtrodden troops.

Manager's future takes twist after advanced Wolves talks and "dramatic U-turn"

He held discussions with the Molineux side.

ByEmilio Galantini Nov 8, 2025

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